Model that allows you to choose the optimal probability of falling out of skins from loot boxes

Data Science

SkinClub logo

Main information

virtual container in computer games, which contains items of different value and purpose.
shop of skins and loot boxes



virtual change in the appearance of the player, weapons or other elements in the game.

How it works

There is a chest on the customer's website
a chest
opens it
wins a prize - skin from the game
Открытие лутбокса


The mechanics of opening loot boxes are similar to the lottery - the player never knows what exactly he will receive and whether it will be worth the money spent.
The odds ratios are now being matched using an algorithm that is slow.

Our task

Develop a system that would automatically select the odds ratios

Conditional scheme

virtual box with gifts
set of items that can fall out of it


Opening cost:

100 rubles

For each box,
the following is set:

the probability of these items being dropped

Skins drop rate:

Gift 1
cost 50 rubles
Gift 2
cost 200 rubles
The user has a chance
to win a prize more expensive than the loot box itself

Our task:

adjust the coefficients so that the user is interested and the customer is profitable:
expensive gifts -
not too small probability of falling out
cheap gifts -
the maximum probability of falling out


keeps the excitement
works in a plus
Initial data:

What have we done

Histogram of the distribution of the chances of dropping items in a loot box
Гистограмма шансов выпадения предметов

Project team

Project manager
Konstantin Kubrak
Data analyst
Oleg Durygin

Interesting fact

This is an international project, we gained experience of working with a company from Scotland

Difficulties of the project

domain specificity
a lot of math
Contact us